Tuesday, January 20, 2009

Inauguration Day Musings

Well I don't know about you, but I wasn't really expecting an "Obama bounce" in the stock markets today. I know there are many people out there, from Wall St to blogspace that have been trying to feed the bull, but there really isn't a whole lot to get excited about. Sure, it is an historic day. Sure, Obama is a great orator. Sure, he gave a very inspiring speech, but at the end of the day the markets tanked! I think that any "Obama bounce" is already priced into the markets, perhaps we're not down quite as far as we would've been had he not won the election, but we're down none-the-less. Maybe we'll see a true bull run in a few years time? 2011-2012 anyone? Your guess is as good as mine!

I think I'm correct in saying that today marks the worst Inauguration Day in the history of the stock market! I think that says a great deal more about the country's outlook than Obama could express in his speech. We're not quite in as bad shape as countries like Iceland, Russia or the UK, but there is a lot that needs to be done in order to inspire confidence in the economy. The proposed stimulus packages may work, but what if they don't? Can the country handle that vast amount of debt? And cut taxes at the same time?? In my mind, for any plan to truly have the desired effect in righting the economy, it has to tackle the debt mountain that is piling up. Is the US Treasury too big to fall? I know it thinks that it is.... but what if overseas investors refuse to buy our paper anymore? What does that mean for the US dollar?

Maybe all the bulls were watching the ceremonies in Washington, leaving the bears to run the show for the day?! I for one will be keeping a close eye on how the markets open in the morning!

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