Sunday, February 1, 2009

2009 - Ideas For The Year Performance Update

At the beginning of the year I made a list of picks and pans for the year which I planned to review at the end of each month. Over the past month I have also tried to post further thoughts about some of the picks, I'll try to continue this through the next month also until I've covered each one. The purpose of this exercise is to provide ideas for your own research, some potential opportunities for 2009, as well as some companies I feel are best avoided. At this point I am just going for a brief overview, I may get into some more in depth analysis later in the year. I will focus on specific companies in this instance, although later in the year I may look in more depth at specific sectors, or the economy as a whole.

So, without further ado, here are the performances for 2009 to date.

My Long Picks for 2009, with 01/31/09 closing prices

Anadys Pharmaceuticals (ANDS) - $5.21 (+231.85%)
Quicksilver Gas Services LP (KGS) - $14.00 (+47.68%)
Natural Resources Partners LP (NRP) - $23.39 (+34.04%)
Dorchester Minerals LP (DMLP) - $19.00 (+19.72%)
Himax Technologies (HIMX) - $1.68 (+4.35%)
Urban Outfitters (URBN) - $15.58 (+4.01%)
Ecology & Environment (EEI) - $12.41 (+3.59%)
UFP Technologies (UFPT) - $5.30 (+0.19%)
Chase Corporation (CCF) - $10.91 (-3.37%)
Raven Industries (RAVN) - $21.81 (-9.50%)
Versar, Inc. (VSR) - $3.68 (-10.68%)
Yanzhou Coal (YZC) - $6.50 (-13.56%)
Hugoton Royalty Trust (HGT) - $13.06 (-18.63%)
Highveld Steel and Vanadium (HSVLY) - $5.112 (-33.44%)

A wide range of performance from my picks this month. Shares in Anadys Pharmaceuticals (ANDS) skyrocketed following the release of promising HCV data. Also strong movement in the natural gas sector helped lift picks Quicksilver Gas Services LP (KGS), Natural Resources Partners LP (NRP), and Dorchester Minerals LP (DMLP). The performance of Highveld Steel and Vanadium (HSVLY) prompted me to pick up a few shares at $5.48. I still believe that this company will be a major player in years to come, but right now it is holding up the bottom of the table.

My Short Picks for 2009, with 01/31/09 closing prices

Ann Taylor Stores (ANN) - $4.92 (-2.38%)
Mercantile Bancorp (MBR) - $9.85 (-6.64%)
Build-A-Bear Workshop (BBW) - $4.20 (-13.58%)
LaCrosse Footwear (BOOT) - $10.76 (-13.78%)
Converted Organics (COIN) - $2.80 (-20.90%)
Office Depot (ODP) - $2.16 (-27.52%)
Red Robin Gourmet Burgers (RRGB) - $12.18 (-27.63%)
Citigroup (C) - $3.55 (-47.09%)
Bank of America (BAC) - $6.58 (-53.27%)
La-Z-Boy (LZB) - $0.97 (-55.30%)
Smurfit Stone Container Corporation (SSCC) - $0.0331 (-87.27%) - Bankrupt
Circuit City (CCTYQ) - $0.006 (-95.38%) - Bankrupt

Well, my short picks fell across the board, although some more than others. Circuit City (CCTYQ) and Smurfit Stone Container Corporation (SSCC) both ended the month in the bankruptcy court, and both Bank of America (BAC) and La-Z-Boy (LZB) fell more than 50%. I fear that the economy may not recover in time for La-Z-Boy (LZB) who may also find themselves in the bankruptcy court before year end. After all, who is going to opt for a new recliner over a mortgage payment?

Well, I will review the list again at the end of February to see how my picks and pans are performing. Until then, happy investing!

Disclosure: At the time of writing the author held shares in Highveld Steel and Vanadium (HSVLY), Himax Technologies (HIMX), Hugoton Royalty Trust (HGT), UFP Technologies (UFPT), and Versar, Inc. (VSR).

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