2009 - Ideas For The Year Performance Update

At the beginning of the year I made a list of picks and pans for the year which I planned to review at the end of each month. The purpose of this exercise was to provide ideas for your own research, some potential opportunities for 2009, as well as some companies I feel are best avoided. We're five months into the year now and there has been a lot of movement across the board.

Interestingly, had I owned real life positions in a number of these stocks, I would've most likely gotten out while the going was good. For instance, shares in Anadys (ANDS) skyrocketed over 300% on positive clinical data before losing most of their gains a few months later following a poor earnings statement. A gain that large in the biotech arena would've been too much for me to resist and I would've been out of there right away! However, for the purpose of this exercise there will be no changing of picks, no matter what happens to the underlying companies.

So here are the performances for 2009 to date.

My Long Picks for 2009, with 05/31/09 closing prices

Himax Technologies (HIMX) - $3.63 (+125.47%)
Yanzhou Coal (YZC) - $12.63 (+67.95%)
Anadys Pharmaceuticals (ANDS) - $2.22 (+41.40%)
Quicksilver Gas Services LP (KGS) - $13.00 (+37.13%)
Urban Outfitters (URBN) - $20.42 (+36.32%)
Natural Resources Partners LP (NRP) - $23.66 (+35.59%)
Dorchester Minerals LP (DMLP) - $20.49 (+29.11%)
Ecology & Environment (EEI) - $14.22 (+18.70%)
Raven Industries (RAVN) - $27.46 (+13.94%)
Versar, Inc. (VSR) - $4.52 (+9.71%)
Chase Corporation (CCF) - $11.70 (+3.63%)
Highveld Steel and Vanadium (HSVLY) - $7.85 (+2.21%)
Hugoton Royalty Trust (HGT) - $13.88 (-13.52%)
UFP Technologies (UFPT) - $4.16 (-21.36%)

Shares in Himax Technologies (HIMX) continued to rise from $2.73 to $3.63 this month despite reporting a huge slump in earnings revenue. The company is expecting a recovery in Q2 prompting the move in the share price. The top performer of the month was Versar, Inc. (VSR) moving from $2.60 to $4.52, following the announcement that the company would receive stimulus money as part of an alternative energy study. Dorchester Minerals (DMLP) and Hugoton Royalty Trust (HGT) both put in significant moves this month. I continue to be bullish on commodities which I still believe will be one of the few sectors that will finish the year on a high note. Raven Industries (RAVN) announced a dividend increase this month, something of a rare commodity in these times, leading to a moderate movement in the share price.

Not so stellar was the performance of United Foam Technologies (UFPT), falling from $5.05 to $4.16 and currently sitting bottom of the pile in my long picks for the year. The move is largely due to a drop in sales and revenue, however, I still believe the company has a strong balance sheet and will emerge from the current crisis as a strong player in the industry.

My Short Picks for 2009, with 05/31/09 closing prices

Office Depot (ODP) - $4.66 (+56.38%)
Ann Taylor Stores (ANN) - $7.32 (+45.24%)
Red Robin Gourmet Burgers (RRGB) - $17.30 (+2.79%)
Build-A-Bear Workshop (BBW) - $4.48 (-7.82%)
La-Z-Boy (LZB) - $1.87 (-13.82%)
Bank of America (BAC) - $11.27 (-19.96%)
LaCrosse Footwear (BOOT) - $9.40 (-24.68%)
Citigroup (C) - $3.72 (-44.56%)
Mercantile Bancorp (MBR) - $5.65 (-46.45%)
Converted Organics (COIN) - $1.48 (-58.19%)
Circuit City (CCTYQ) - $0.021 (-84.62%) - Bankrupt
Smurfit Stone Container Corporation (SSCC) - $0.00 (-100%) - Bankrupt

As a group my short picks continued to rally this month, despite poor fundamentals. I think this is a trend that we will shortly see reversed as the bear market rally gives way to the next leg down. The biggest mover of the month was Office Depot (ODP) moving from $2.70 to $4.66 following a number of analyst upgrades, while La-Z-Boy (LZB) retraced most of last month's impressive gains. Office Depot (ODP) has made an impressive recovery from close to $1 a share back in March so I'm beginning to suspect that its days as a good short pick may be behind us.

Well, I will review the list again at the end of June to see how my picks and pans are performing. Until then, happy investing!

Disclosure: At the time of writing the author held shares in Highveld Steel and Vanadium (HSVLY), Himax Technologies (HIMX), Hugoton Royalty Trust (HGT), Yanzhou Coal (YZC), UFP Technologies (UFPT), and Versar, Inc. (VSR).

2009 - Ideas For The Year Performance Update

At the beginning of the year I made a list of picks and pans for the year which I planned to review at the end of each month. Well, it's that time again and there's definitely been a lot of movement this past month!

So here are the performances for 2009 to date.

My Long Picks for 2009, with 04/30/09 closing prices

Himax Technologies (HIMX) - $2.73 (+69.57%)
Anadys Pharmaceuticals (ANDS) - $2.50 (+59.24%)
Quicksilver Gas Services LP (KGS) - $13.46 (+59.24%)
Natural Resources Partners LP (NRP) - $24.09 (+38.05%)
Yanzhou Coal (YZC) - $9.91 (+31.78%)
Urban Outfitters (URBN) - $19.14 (+27.77%)
Ecology & Environment (EEI) - $13.43 (+12.10%)
Dorchester Minerals LP (DMLP) - $17.63 (+11.09%)
Raven Industries (RAVN) - $24.64 (+2.24%)
Highveld Steel and Vanadium (HSVLY) - $7.45 (-2.99%)
UFP Technologies (UFPT) - $5.05 (-4.54%)
Chase Corporation (CCF) - $9.70 (-14.08%)
Hugoton Royalty Trust (HGT) - $11.10 (-30.84%)
Versar, Inc. (VSR) - $2.60 (-36.89%)

The top performer of the month was Yanzhou Coal (YZC) moving from $7.17 to $9.91. I continue to be bullish on commodities which I believe will be one of the few sectors that will finish the year on a high note. Urban Outfitters (URBN) also put in an impressive month, moving from $16.37 to $19.14, although I am still interested to see what this months Q1 figures look like.

Shares of Anadys Pharmaceuticals (ANDS) fell off a cliff after reporting larger than expected expenses in their recent earnings, demonstrating once again the volatility of the biotech sector. I still believe that Anadys has great potential, however, had I been sitting on a real life +300% gain from a biotech stock I would've sold right away! Anyway, let's not dwell on this, moving on.

My Short Picks for 2009, with 04/30/09 closing prices

Ann Taylor Stores (ANN) - $7.39 (+46.63%)
Red Robin Gourmet Burgers (RRGB) - $22.71 (+34.94%)
La-Z-Boy (LZB) - $2.85 (+31.34%)
Build-A-Bear Workshop (BBW) - $5.13 (+5.56%)
Office Depot (ODP) - $2.70 (-9.40%)
LaCrosse Footwear (BOOT) - $7.79 (-37.58%)
Bank of America (BAC) - $8.70 (-38.21%)
Mercantile Bancorp (MBR) - $6.41 (-39.24%)
Citigroup (C) - $2.97 (-55.74%)
Converted Organics (COIN) - $1.52 (-57.06%)
Circuit City (CCTYQ) - $0.021 (-83.85%) - Bankrupt
Smurfit Stone Container Corporation (SSCC) - $0.00 (-100%) - Bankrupt

As a group my short picks continued to rally this month, despite poor fundamentals. I think it's a classic case of "a rising tide floats all boats". La-Z-Boy (LZB) put in a particularly impressive month moving from $1.25 to $2.85, but I really have no idea why! In my opinion the company has poor valuation and fundamentals and I don't expect them to survive the year. Build-A-Bear Workshop (BBW) missed analyst earnings estimates with a pretty unimpressive set of figures which has since been reflected in the share price reversing most of last months gains.

Well, I will review the list again at the end of May to see how my picks and pans are performing. Until then, happy investing!

Disclosure: At the time of writing the author held shares in Highveld Steel and Vanadium (HSVLY), Himax Technologies (HIMX), Hugoton Royalty Trust (HGT), Yanzhou Coal (YZC), UFP Technologies (UFPT), and Versar, Inc. (VSR).

Quicksilver Gas Services - KGS

Quicksilver Gas Services (KGS) is in the business of gathering and transporting natural gas and liquid natural gas through its pipeline assets and processing facilities in Texas. These services are provided under fee-based contracts, whereby the Company receives fixed fees for performing the gathering and processing services. Quicksilver Gas Services (KGS) does not take title to the natural gas or associated natural gas liquids that it gathers and processes and thus avoids direct commodity price exposure. This is what sets Quicksilver Gas Services (KGS) apart from similar pipeline companies.

Quicksilver Gas Services (KGS) currently trades at a trailing P/E of 13.81, and pays a dividend of 11%. The company has demonstrated good levels of earnings and revenue growth, depsite the economic slowdown, and I anticipate a 12-month price target of $18-20 as the economic outlook improves in the second half of the year. My major concern about the company is the increasing level of debt that the company is taking on.

Disclosure: At the time of writing the author did not hold shares in Quicksilver Gas Services (KGS).

2009 - Ideas For The Year Performance Update

At the beginning of the year I made a list of picks and pans for the year which I planned to review at the end of each month. The purpose of this exercise is to provide ideas for your own research, some potential opportunities for 2009, as well as some companies I feel are best avoided. At this point I am just going for a brief overview, I may get into some more in depth analysis later in the year. I will focus on specific companies in this instance, although later in the year I may look in more depth at specific sectors, or the economy as a whole.

So here are the performances for 2009 to date.

My Long Picks for 2009, with 03/31/09 closing prices

Anadys Pharmaceuticals (ANDS) - $6.79 (+332.48%)
Himax Technologies (HIMX) - $2.80 (+73.91%)
Quicksilver Gas Services LP (KGS) - $13.25 (+39.77%)
Natural Resources Partners LP (NRP) - $22.33 (+27.97%)
Ecology & Environment (EEI) - $13.15 (+9.77%)
Urban Outfitters (URBN) - $16.37 (+9.28%)
Dorchester Minerals LP (DMLP) - $16.33 (+2.90%)
Highveld Steel and Vanadium (HSVLY) - $7.85 (+2.21%)
Yanzhou Coal (YZC) - $7.17 (-4.65%)
Raven Industries (RAVN) - $20.78 (-13.78%)
UFP Technologies (UFPT) - $4.4899 (-15.12%)
Chase Corporation (CCF) - $9.30 (-17.63%)
Hugoton Royalty Trust (HGT) - $9.56 (-40.44%)
Versar, Inc. (VSR) - $2.29 (-44.42%)

The top performer of the month was Himax Technologies (HIMX) moving from $1.65 to $2.80. Also of note was Yanzhou Coal (YZC), moving from $5.68 to $7.17. I imagine that oil and commodities will continue to improve in the coming months which should lift struggling pick Hugoton Royalty Trust (HGT). I am considering increasing my stake in HGT, as I feel it is one of the most undervalued royalty trusts.

My Short Picks for 2009, with 03/31/09 closing prices

Build-A-Bear Workshop (BBW) - $6.07 (+24.90%)
Red Robin Gourmet Burgers (RRGB) - $17.63 (+4.75%)
Ann Taylor Stores (ANN) - $5.20 (+3.17%)
Mercantile Bancorp (MBR) - $7.2999 (-30.81%)
LaCrosse Footwear (BOOT) - $8.03 (-35.66%)
La-Z-Boy (LZB) - $1.25 (-42.40%)
Bank of America (BAC) - $6.82 (-51.56%)
Office Depot (ODP) - $1.31 (-56.04%)
Citigroup (C) - $2.53 (-62.30%)
Converted Organics (COIN) - $0.84 (-76.27%)
Circuit City (CCTYQ) - $0.0075 (-94.23%) - Bankrupt
Smurfit Stone Container Corporation (SSCC) - $0.00 (-100%) - Bankrupt

As a group my short picks rallied a little in recent weeks, particularly in the financial sector. The big surprise for me is Build-A-Bear Workshop (BBW) which is up almost 25% for the year. Converted Organics (COIN) continued its fall into penny stock territory.

Well, I will review the list again at the end of April to see how my picks and pans are performing. Until then, happy investing!

Disclosure: At the time of writing the author held shares in Highveld Steel and Vanadium (HSVLY), Himax Technologies (HIMX), Hugoton Royalty Trust (HGT), Yanzhou Coal (YZC), UFP Technologies (UFPT), and Versar, Inc. (VSR).

Ann Taylor Stores - ANN

Ann Taylor Stores (ANN), one of my short picks for 2009, reported a set of pretty appalling results yesterday, including a staggering loss of $6.66 per share. This hardly came as a surprise to me, as I feel the company caters mostly to the section of the population most affected by the current economic climate. It is significantly more expensive than a number of discount retailers, but it is also far from high-end fashion. I don't see things improving for the company for some time yet as people seem to have significantly less disposable income available at present. Investors greeted the news by sending the stock price down 38%!

Prior to these results, Ann Taylor Stores (ANN) was the only one of my short picks to have posted a stock price gain for the year, now all of the picks are in negative territory.

Disclosure: At the time of writing the author did not hold shares in Ann Taylor Stores (ANN).

2009 - Ideas For The Year Performance Update

At the beginning of the year I made a list of picks and pans for the year which I planned to review at the end of each month. I started out posting further thoughts about some of the picks, but failed quite miserably to add much new stuff over the past month. I'll try to fix this over this next month! The purpose of this exercise is to provide ideas for your own research, some potential opportunities for 2009, as well as some companies I feel are best avoided. At this point I am just going for a brief overview, I may get into some more in depth analysis later in the year. I will focus on specific companies in this instance, although later in the year I may look in more depth at specific sectors, or the economy as a whole.

So here are the performances for 2009 to date.

My Long Picks for 2009, with 02/28/09 closing prices

Anadys Pharmaceuticals (ANDS) - $6.12 (+289.81%)
Quicksilver Gas Services LP (KGS) - $12.20 (+28.69%)
Natural Resources Partners LP (NRP) - $20.73 (+18.80%)
Urban Outfitters (URBN) - $16.64 (+11.08%)
Ecology & Environment (EEI) - $12.49 (+4.26%)
Dorchester Minerals LP (DMLP) - $16.31 (+2.77%)
Himax Technologies (HIMX) - $1.65 (+2.48%)
Highveld Steel and Vanadium (HSVLY) - $6.742 (-12.21%)
Chase Corporation (CCF) - $9.12 (-19.22%)
UFP Technologies (UFPT) - $4.10 (-22.50%)
Yanzhou Coal (YZC) - $5.68 (-24.47%)
Raven Industries (RAVN) - $18.18 (-24.56%)
Hugoton Royalty Trust (HGT) - $9.93 (-38.13%)
Versar, Inc. (VSR) - $2.44 (-40.78%)

A pretty dismal performance from my picks this month. Shares in Anadys Pharmaceuticals (ANDS) skyrocketed last month following the release of promising HCV data and have maintained a steady run. Highveld Steel and Vanadium (HSVLY) was the best performer of the month, although still sitting at a loss for 2009.

My Short Picks for 2009, with 02/28/09 closing prices

Ann Taylor Stores (ANN) - $6.58 (+30.56%)
Red Robin Gourmet Burgers (RRGB) - $14.21 (-15.57%)
Build-A-Bear Workshop (BBW) - $3.62 (-25.51%)
LaCrosse Footwear (BOOT) - $8.5185 (-31.74%)
Mercantile Bancorp (MBR) - $5.94 (-43.70%)
La-Z-Boy (LZB) - $0.90 (-58.53%)
Converted Organics (COIN) - $1.27 (-64.12%)
Office Depot (ODP) - $1.05 (-64.77%)
Bank of America (BAC) - $3.95 (-71.95%)
Citigroup (C) - $1.50 (-77.65%)
Circuit City (CCTYQ) - $0.007 (-94.62%) - Bankrupt
Smurfit Stone Container Corporation (SSCC) - $0.00 (-100%) - Bankrupt

Well, as a group my short picks worked out a whole lot better than the long picks. The banks in particular had a rough month, with Bank of America (BAC), Citigroup (C) and Mercantile Bancorp (MBR) all suffering big drops. The one jewel among the short picks is Ann Taylor Stores (ANN) which is up over 30% since the beginning of the year. In fact despite the economy, certain retailers seem to be holding up a lot better than most people expected.

Well, I will review the list again at the end of March to see how my picks and pans are performing. Until then, happy investing!

Disclosure: At the time of writing the author held shares in Highveld Steel and Vanadium (HSVLY), Himax Technologies (HIMX), Hugoton Royalty Trust (HGT), UFP Technologies (UFPT), and Versar, Inc. (VSR).

2009 - Ideas For The Year Performance Update

At the beginning of the year I made a list of picks and pans for the year which I planned to review at the end of each month. Over the past month I have also tried to post further thoughts about some of the picks, I'll try to continue this through the next month also until I've covered each one. The purpose of this exercise is to provide ideas for your own research, some potential opportunities for 2009, as well as some companies I feel are best avoided. At this point I am just going for a brief overview, I may get into some more in depth analysis later in the year. I will focus on specific companies in this instance, although later in the year I may look in more depth at specific sectors, or the economy as a whole.

So, without further ado, here are the performances for 2009 to date.

My Long Picks for 2009, with 01/31/09 closing prices

Anadys Pharmaceuticals (ANDS) - $5.21 (+231.85%)
Quicksilver Gas Services LP (KGS) - $14.00 (+47.68%)
Natural Resources Partners LP (NRP) - $23.39 (+34.04%)
Dorchester Minerals LP (DMLP) - $19.00 (+19.72%)
Himax Technologies (HIMX) - $1.68 (+4.35%)
Urban Outfitters (URBN) - $15.58 (+4.01%)
Ecology & Environment (EEI) - $12.41 (+3.59%)
UFP Technologies (UFPT) - $5.30 (+0.19%)
Chase Corporation (CCF) - $10.91 (-3.37%)
Raven Industries (RAVN) - $21.81 (-9.50%)
Versar, Inc. (VSR) - $3.68 (-10.68%)
Yanzhou Coal (YZC) - $6.50 (-13.56%)
Hugoton Royalty Trust (HGT) - $13.06 (-18.63%)
Highveld Steel and Vanadium (HSVLY) - $5.112 (-33.44%)

A wide range of performance from my picks this month. Shares in Anadys Pharmaceuticals (ANDS) skyrocketed following the release of promising HCV data. Also strong movement in the natural gas sector helped lift picks Quicksilver Gas Services LP (KGS), Natural Resources Partners LP (NRP), and Dorchester Minerals LP (DMLP). The performance of Highveld Steel and Vanadium (HSVLY) prompted me to pick up a few shares at $5.48. I still believe that this company will be a major player in years to come, but right now it is holding up the bottom of the table.

My Short Picks for 2009, with 01/31/09 closing prices

Ann Taylor Stores (ANN) - $4.92 (-2.38%)
Mercantile Bancorp (MBR) - $9.85 (-6.64%)
Build-A-Bear Workshop (BBW) - $4.20 (-13.58%)
LaCrosse Footwear (BOOT) - $10.76 (-13.78%)
Converted Organics (COIN) - $2.80 (-20.90%)
Office Depot (ODP) - $2.16 (-27.52%)
Red Robin Gourmet Burgers (RRGB) - $12.18 (-27.63%)
Citigroup (C) - $3.55 (-47.09%)
Bank of America (BAC) - $6.58 (-53.27%)
La-Z-Boy (LZB) - $0.97 (-55.30%)
Smurfit Stone Container Corporation (SSCC) - $0.0331 (-87.27%) - Bankrupt
Circuit City (CCTYQ) - $0.006 (-95.38%) - Bankrupt

Well, my short picks fell across the board, although some more than others. Circuit City (CCTYQ) and Smurfit Stone Container Corporation (SSCC) both ended the month in the bankruptcy court, and both Bank of America (BAC) and La-Z-Boy (LZB) fell more than 50%. I fear that the economy may not recover in time for La-Z-Boy (LZB) who may also find themselves in the bankruptcy court before year end. After all, who is going to opt for a new recliner over a mortgage payment?

Well, I will review the list again at the end of February to see how my picks and pans are performing. Until then, happy investing!

Disclosure: At the time of writing the author held shares in Highveld Steel and Vanadium (HSVLY), Himax Technologies (HIMX), Hugoton Royalty Trust (HGT), UFP Technologies (UFPT), and Versar, Inc. (VSR).

2009 - Ideas For The Year

Welcome to 2009!
The past year has been a rough ride, and I imagine that many of you (like me!) are considerably worse off than you were a year ago. The events of 2008 exposed many weakness in both the national and global economies leaving bankruptcies, falling sales, job losses, lower real estate prices, foreclosures.... the list goes on.... and it ain't pretty!

There are many challenges that lie ahead in 2009, but with them come many opportunities for those looking in the right places. There is money to be made in 2009, but it may not come as easily as in years past.

The purpose of this post is to make a few picks for the year which I will review at the end of each month. In the coming few weeks I will post further thoughts about each of the picks. The purpose of this exercise is to provide ideas for your own research, some potential opportunities for 2009, as well as some companies I feel are best avoided. I will focus on specific companies in this instance, although later in the year I may look in more depth at specific sectors, or the economy as a whole.

My Long Picks for 2009, with 12/31/08 closing prices

Highveld Steel and Vanadium (HSVLY) - $7.68
Chase Corporation (CCF) - $11.29
Versar, Inc. (VSR) - $4.12
Natural Resources Partners LP (NRP) - $17.45
Hugoton Royalty Trust (HGT) - $16.05
UFP Technologies (UFPT) - $5.29
Anadys Pharmaceuticals (ANDS) - $1.57
Yanzhou Coal (YZC) - $7.52
Ecology & Environment (EEI) - $11.98
Quicksilver Gas Services LP (KGS) - $9.48
Urban Outfitters (URBN) - $14.98
Dorchester Minerals LP (DMLP) - $15.87
Himax Technologies (HIMX) - $1.61
Raven Industries (RAVN) - $24.10

My Short Picks for 2009, with 12/31/08 closing prices

Citigroup (C) - $6.71
Bank of America (BAC) - $14.08
LaCrosse Footwear (BOOT) - $12.48
Red Robin Gourmet Burgers (RRGB) - $16.83
Office Depot (ODP) - $2.98
Ann Taylor Stores (ANN) - $5.04
Mercantile Bancorp (MBR) - $10.55
Circuit City (CCTYQ) - $0.13
La-Z-Boy (LZB) - $2.17
Build-A-Bear Workshop (BBW) - $4.86
Smurfit Stone Container Corporation (SSCC) - $0.26
Converted Organics (COIN) - $3.54

Well, I will review the list at the end of January to see how my picks and pans are performing. Until then, happy investing!

Disclosure: At the time of writing the author held shares in Himax Technologies (HIMX), Hugoton Royalty Trust (HGT), UFP Technologies (UFPT), and Versar, Inc. (VSR).